The Senate Does Their Big One
The once one big beautiful bill has passed. Read on for what’s next in terms of process, state of affairs, how it went down, etc.
After weeks of consternation, backdoor deals, and several all-nighters, the Senate has finally passed Trump’s one big beautiful budget bill, no longer called that after Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) invoked budget rules to strip the bill of its title. As always, Democrats are focused on the important things.
The bill passed 51-50, after Republican Sens. Rand Paul (KY), Susan Collins (ME), and Thom Tillis (NC) voted alongside Democrats to oppose the bill. Republicans were able to sway Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), to vote in favor of the bill. Otherwise, it would have tanked.
Immediately upon voting, Murkowski said that the vote was “agonizing” and that she hoped that the House would see how much work still needs to be done, amend the bill and send it back to the Senate so that they could workshop it (ignoring the self-imposed July 4 deadline). Basically, she’s not a fan of the bill, but she didn’t want to vote against it, thus sinking the bill in its entirety and ultimately killing its prospects. She wanted to buy more time.
But, that may be wishful thinking on Murkowski’s part. According to congressional reporters, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is planning to take up the Senate bill as is and vote on it as soon as tomorrow. House Majority Whip (the person that is responsible for persuading members to vote alongside party preferences) Tom Emmer (R-IN), said the same thing.
That, however may also be wishful thinking. House Republicans hate the bill even more than Senators do. According to Axios they are revolting against the legislation. Revolting! Apparently there are over 20 Republicans threatening to vote against this bill, calling it a non-starter.
This doesn’t bode well considering House Republicans can only lose three votes total. And they’ve already lost Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) who has publicly opposed the legislation (and gained Trump’s ire as a result). So really, they can only lose two votes. Not 20.
Here’s a short list of key things that people hate about this bill:
House Freedom Caucus (HFC): Taking the Rand Paul line of argument in that they hate that the bill raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, and increases increases the deficit by way more than the House version did.
HFC Member and conservative hardliner Ralph Norman (R-SC) has said he’s a “no” vote on the bill and would oppose both the procedural rule, and final passage.
Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN) said he plans to delete the entire bill and replace it with the “strong House version” they passed a couple of weeks ago. That’s three.
Moderate GOP caucus: Taking the Thom Tillis and Susan Collins line of argument in that they hate that the bill makes massive, unprecedented cuts to Medicaid — cutting about $1 trillion in total. Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) is likely none too pleased. Dozens of members are stressed, particularly after Tillis publicly torched the bill’s Medicaid provisions this weekend.
Everyone is also a little bit shook right now by the process. On Capitol Hill, typically the House is the one that passes the politically fraught legislation, and the Senate waters it down. In this case, it was the opposite, where the Senate bill has many in the House burying their heads. Johnson too hinged on the fact that Senate would most likely water down the bill, which reassured moderates to vote in the affirmative. Now, however, House moderates are livid at being conned into supporting the legislation.
So, right now, the bill does look to be dead on arrival (DOA). But things change quickly, and Trump is hellbent on passing this bill this week, screaming on social media to “GET IT DONE.” (Why else would Johnson, who tried desperately to get the Senate to amend its version to look like the original House bill passed take up the Senate version in its current form?!)
The bottom line: Everyone hates this bill for different reasons, hence why we had a record-breaking number of amendments offered to the legislation in the Senate (including from Republican members), but they’re determined to pass it for reasons unknown…aka White House political pressure.
And the pressure is intense, not even people who are usually good at applying their own political pressure and tanking bills (ahem, Elon Musk) could get through to the GOP Senators.
So let’s break that down quickly, why they’re SO determined to pass this shoddy (in their words) bill this week?:
Trump has done a f*ck load of things via executive order, but, legislatively he doesn’t have a single win. And he has made this bill the centerpiece of his legislative agenda.
Trump’s tax cuts (from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)) also expire this year, and, despite reports of the TCJA substantially adding to the deficit and really not doing too much besides offering tax cuts for the wealthy, Trump wants to make them permanent.
New Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) needs a win. This is his first big test as head honcho, and how he navigated this would determine how supportive members were of his leadership, and how effective he could be at getting them to fall in line during subsequent votes.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) also needs a win. After the politically fraught years that Republicans had in hiring and firing Speakers of the House, upon being re-elected for this 119th Congress, Johnson told Members that they could try and remove him if he couldn’t get this done. Obviously no one is rooting their own downfall.
Legislatively, Congress needs to shift gears and focus on the next slate of budget bills, which they are planning to mark up by the end of July in hopes of being able to go on August recess.
The bill also includes a sh*t load of money specifically for the Immigrations Customs Enforcement (ICE) — like over $30 billion, with a desire to hire 10,000 ICE agents. For reference, ICE currently has a $3.4 billion yearly detention budget. This is Trumps whole agenda at this current moment. And he wants to be able to make the announcement on the 4th because, as we know, Trump loves a fckng show. Damn Leo rising.
Trump today also said he would be moving to deport American citizens, right after the Department of Justice announced that it would be prioritizing denaturalization (e.g., revoking citizenship from naturalized Americans) cases.
So, things are moving quickly, in terms of Congress — we can’t exactly call 15 hour debates “quick,” but the bill still does face many procedural hurdles.
Oh, and here’s the other thing. Let’s say that the House passes an entirely different bill, or even a bill that has a slight difference from the Senate bill. Then they will have to send the bill back over to the Senate and the whole process would begin again.
Legislative ping-pong is my favorite sport.
So, as always, we’re keeping an eye on it and will keep you posted on all the recent updates. I don’t love doing a newsletter only to report on process developments that will change overnight (though if you want this let me know), but I am keeping Smartt Takes followers updated on Instagram. So, if you’re someone who wants minute by minute updates, follow me there @smartt_takes.
Up next: Trump’s tariffs are expiring July 9 (and he doesn’t plan to extend them), Uranus moves into Gemini July 7 (signature historically indicating a seven-year period when the U.S. enters into war, joy), and the House is still trying to pass this bill! Stay right here for all your updates and make sure to subscribeeee :). Thanks and happy holiday week!
Oh shoot, I almost forgot!! Astrology! (if you care, otherwise, stop reading here!) :)
After the mayhem with Thom Tillis (August 30, 1960) & Lisa Murkowski (May 22, 1957) of courseeee I had to look up their birthdays. Kinda whack, but they have the same signature happening, just in the reverse.
Thom Tillis
Over the weekend, Mars ♂️ (the planet of action) and the moon ☽ (emotions) in the sky were directly orbiting (like on top of) Tillis’s Virgo sun ☉ .
While Virgos can get a bad rap for being critical, hyper analytical, and judgmental, they also really care, they’re deeply involved in public service, and they are super analytical. They just like their routines!
The Sun also represents someone’s purpose. So, not knowing his birth time or really anything about his history, Tillis felt that his purpose was public service. His Pluto ⚘ (permanent transformation, release of something) and Mercury ☿️ (communication and how he thinks) are right there. With Mars hitting those planets all at once, he was bound to take action related to his purpose. He got a bit fiery about how these Medicaid cuts would destroy peoples lives, retired in response, and transformed the people have regarded him (have you ever seen Tillis being the outspoken R Sen) as well as his career forever. It’s safe to say he’ll never be in Congress again (but then again these people run for reelection at 94 — ahem Chuck Grassley (R-IA), so 68 is a damn youth. Truly no telling.
Lisa Murkowski
During the vote, the Sun in the sky was on top of Murkowski’s Mars (the same signature as Tillis, just the opposite formation). Her Mars ♂️ is in the sign of Cancer (about home, community, emotions), so with the Sun ☉ illuminating her Mars right there, she was bound to take some sort of action. What made me think that she would cave to the political pressure of her fellow Republicans is the fact that Uranus ♅ (planet of sudden insight, shifts, shocks, upheavals) is on top of her Gemini (communication, adaptability) Sun.
Murkowski tends to be someone who votes against her Republican colleagues. The starkest example of that is her vehement opposition to the 2017 Obamacare repeal (which failed) and the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (which passed). When I looked at her astrology earlier this week, however, I felt like she would probably vote for the bill. Uranus is a planet of surprises. It wouldn’t be surprising to see her vote against the legislation, it’s surprising to see her vote for it.
Again, as we know, she didn’t like the bill and yet she still voted for it. Hell, she even voted against the procedural motion to begin debate on the budget bill this weekend.
So, yeah, that’s my quick takes, and also what has now inspired me to go analyze the astrology of the U.S. Senators, so I’m excited for that to come!
And now for real this time, adios! Catch ya next time!
-Lesley