Yo, Let's Talk About That Budget Bill

Trump's still out of town, so let's take a vacation from talking about him. Read on for analysis & breakdown of le bill.

I love a good legislative breakdown. And Trump’s (oops already starting to talk about him) “one, big beautiful” bill is moving fast fast fast. So let’s break it alllll down.

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What You Should Know abt the Structure: While it’s “one bill,” congressional Republicans have broken it into sections, organized by subject matter. Each section is being tackled by the committee with jurisdiction. For example, the House Ways and Means Committee is handling the tax section, the House Energy & Commerce Committee is handling energy and health care provisions (e.g., Medicaid), etc.

The Committees will then send their portion of the bill to the Budget Committee for final review, who will then compile the separate components back into “one big beautiful bill” and vote on it as a single package. If that package passes (which it will), then it will head to the House for a full floor vote.

The House Budget Committee just set a markup (time when they edit the bill, offer amendments, make changes) for 9:00 am this Friday, where they will hear/vote on any proposed amendments (which Smartt Takes is 99% sure won’t be adopted).

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Bill(s) Status: At the time of this publication (3:30 PM), the House Energy & Commerce (E&C) Committee is heading into hour 26 of their markup. Notable because the E&C Committee has the section with Medicaid provisions, certainly one of the most controversial components of the bill.

Meanwhile, House E&C passed their energy and environment portion of the legislation (again, still reviewing health); House Ways and Means passed their tax portion of the bill; and other Committees are still in markup.

Reminder that the bill is being passed through a legislative vehicle called reconciliation (watch my previous video on it if you’re interested— skip to the end).

What this means is that, when the bill heads to the Senate, it can be passed by 51 votes, rather than the standard required 60. Also meaning every single Democrat can oppose the legislation, and it could still pass.

But will it pass?

The age old question.

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Political Context: I have no doubt it’ll pass the House. If not the first try, definitely the second.

As for the Senate, I think Senators will sink the bill the second it arrives, and draft their own version. While Senators don’t need any Democrats to vote for the legislation, they do need 50 votes from Republican Senators (Vance being the tie vote).

Right now, you have Josh Hawley (MO) and Ron Johnson (WI) who have both written op-eds (linked via their names above) this week declaring their opposition to the bill. Opposing the bill for different reasons (Medicaid cuts, and not reducing deficit enough, respectively) which matters, as it means there’s not one, quick fix Republicans can make to reconcile differences.

Assuming that Hawley and Johnson are opposed to the bill, that means that you can only lose two more R. Senators before it becomes dead on arrival (DOA). And, here’s the thing, Republicans already expect Sen. Rand Paul (KY) to vote against it, as he voted against the blueprint of the budget bill, which was a skeleton of the current legislation. So, if this holds, they can only lose one more.

And there is a bloc of Republican Senators who often oppose big Republican legislation (Sens. Lisa Murkowski (AK), Susan Collins (ME), and increasingly (lately/shockingly) Mitch McConnell (KY)). Murkowski and Collins both share Hawley’s concerns about drastically cutting Medicaid.

You also have Senators like Thom Tillis (NC) and Shelley Moore Capito (WV) that are wary of removing Biden’s clean energy tax breaks, given the fiscal impact it has on their states. Not to mention, Tillis (facing a competitive reelection) is also wary about Medicaid cuts.

What this indicates is that even if Republicans’ individual beliefs about certain issues haven’t changed, their states’ position has evolved.

Is Hawley a likely proponent of Medicaid? Not at all…